Cuomo Tempo?
With Obama increasingly seen as a liability and some Democrats looking for a 2012 alternative, the discussed “field” thus far appears to be Hillary. With her current job a run seems remote. There are no ready precedents, and it looks like back stabbing. She would have had to quit prior to November 2010 to logically break with the administration. And nobody will fall for another listening tour.
So let’s make some assumptions: Anyone making a primary challenge would be (1) a successful pol, ideally a governor, who (2) needs national exposure and can (3) credibly run against Obama without damaging his future chances. Further, such a person can reason that (4) the challenge will fail, (5) Obama will lose in 2012, so (6) his Democrat 2012 primary challenger will be a front runner for 2016 against the Republican incumbent. Such a person benefits from the might-have-been/shoulda-won effect.
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is a good fit for such a scenario. He provides a welcome alternative to Obama as a fresh yet solid choice in a world of governors touting their not-from-Washington accomplishments. Cuomo can run a high level campaign based on getting New York’s finances in shape and confidently handling various “disasters.” No need to beat up Obama and risk intraparty backlash. Having just been elected governor in 2010, he has no worries about the calendar. A primary test run is a low risk preliminary for 2016 and would remind Democrat fund-raisers that all is not lost in the post-Messiah world.
Vadim said,
September 13, 2011 at 12:52 am
Interesting analysis but I don’t see it happening. The Democrat party at this point is too ideological to take this kind of cool reasoning on board.