Anatolian landscape
As the Turkish government moves Islam-ward one wonders how the Kemalist power structure allowed this to happen. The usual answer is demographic: the rural Islamic population has outproduced the secular urban Turk. This doesn’t seem convincing in view of the military’s traditional propensity for intervening when the politicians misbehaved. Why should those in charge lose heart because the peasants are having big families. Don’t ruling classes expect to be in the minority?
A more interesting explanation is that, without external threats, the military Kemalist faction could no longer prove its vital relevance, even to itself. No more USSR, no heavily armed Iraq, Greece long since surpassed, Cyprus a fait accompli, Syria in turmoil, Iran occupied in the Gulf and not a problem anyway. The trend in the last twenty years has been relentlessly against the military as eternal protector of the republic from neighboring threats. Turkey’s other neighbors, Bulgaria, Georgia & Armenia would only produce smiles if cited as real threats. And if there is one thing besides defeat that an army cannot permit it is being laughed at. Apparently the Kurds cannot alone fill the gap.
With the neighborhood looking comparatively safe, commerce has flourished and the usual tensions have arisen along with questions of Turkey’s role in the world. The secular European avenue having been blocked, Islam is left as the driving force. This trend has developed no doubt because of the skill of the Islamic politicians who have avoided the usual rhetorical and political extremism. Perhaps they intend to lower the hammer once completely in charge but so far they have been moderate and gradual in their strategy. This prevented the army from acting decisively to retain its hold on power.
Now–with the resignation of the country’s top generals–the process of Islamification appears dependent solely on the Islamists themselves. The question now is whether Turkey can produce a sane, sustainable Islamic government within a democratic framework. Given Islam’s antidemocratic DNA, the country’s neighbors should pray that this unique venture succeeds.
