The non-Mitt hangs tough
When polled, conservatives have resisted the centrist Romney by backing a series of more or less appealing alternatives. While Romney is the man to beat, opposition to him coalesced early and shows no signs of abating. Given the Republicans’ usual preference for former governors as presidential candidates, it seems inevitable that Perry will earn another look. He will certainly aim to reach the Texas primary which is presently scheduled for April 3rd. Texas represents 155 delegates, about 13% of the total needed to nominate. Whether it is winner take all or proportional–the issue is surprisingly still in doubt–that primary may well give Perry enough delegates to remain a player, especially considering that the current non-Mitts, Newt and Paul, will likely have flamed out by then. The issue hinges on whether Perry’s finances hold out.
If the campaign is distilled to Mitt vs. Perry on April 3rd, it’s advantage Perry, who has a better and more consistent record from the conservative point of view. And conservatives know that this is their chance to be heard. The general election will focus on the quicksilver independents. Psychologically, the anyone-but-Mitt voters are more likely to give Perry a second chance than to change their minds and settle at long last for what they didn’t want in the first place.
