Two Maxims, One Mind
A maxim known to all chess players is “the threat is stronger than the execution.” A standing threat distracts and demoralizes the opponent, complicating his calculations in contrast to the executed threat that quickly erupts then recedes into the past. The quality of the threat is less important than its effect on the opponent and the initiative or freedom to operate elsewhere it grants the attacker. More subtly the threat may exist over an area, for instance the threat of a raid against multiple points. In such cases, the threat multiplies the attacking force until it is executed. The speculation on the enemy psyche may be thought of as short selling: at a set cost, the attacker hopes for an outsized collapse of the opponent.
“An opponent surprised is half beaten.” This maxim, which pretty much summarizes Sun Tzu, may be considered the flip side of the first: the threat is carefully hidden rather than advertised, the execution is swift rather than withheld, all the better to magnify the effect through a rubble of panic and paralysis.
Both cases highlight the opponent’s psyche, the greatest variable in a battle. The opponent’s reaction may range from no psychological effect (an imperturbable foe responding objectively) to outright collapse (a completely spooked opponent).
In contrast, the flexibility gained in reserving the threat is offset by the breathing room given the opponent. Because he has not actually been attacked, he has time to respond in a creative and dangerous manner. On the other hand, the surprise attack fully commits the aggressor who may later suffer a furious counterattack sustained by righteous indignation.
